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| Chief Executive Officer, NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe |
Nigeria has lost crude oil worth an estimated N8.41tn to theft and metering lapses between 2021 and July 2025, according to new figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
While the regulator hailed recent progress in curbing daily losses to their lowest in nearly 16 years, analysts warn that the cumulative damage underscores deep governance failures in the oil sector.
Billions Lost
NUPRC data revealed that crude losses stood at 37.6m barrels in 2021, 20.9m barrels in 2022, 4.3m barrels in 2023, 4.1m barrels in 2024, and 2.04m barrels between January–July 2025.
When matched against Statista’s average Brent crude prices, the losses equate to $2.66bn in 2021, $2.11bn in 2022, $355.7m in 2023, $330.3m in 2024, and $146.5m in 2025 so far. In total, Nigeria lost $5.61bn (about N8.41tn at N1,500/$) over four and a half years.
To put it in perspective, the stolen wealth could have financed 56,074 primary health centres, 129,401 classroom blocks, or 10,191 kilometres of roads. By contrast, the federal government earmarked only N1tn for 468 road projects in the 2025 budget less than one-eighth of the value siphoned off through oil theft.
Experts React
Energy consultant Chukwuma Atuanya said although the drop to 2.04m barrels in the first seven months of 2025 signals progress, Nigeria is still far from its 2 million barrels per day (bpd) production target.
“The country still needs an additional 400,000 bpd. Losses of 9,600 bpd remain significant,” he noted, adding that theft continues to erode foreign reserves, weaken the naira, and discourage investment.
Atuanya credited improvements to military crackdowns, better metering, unmanned surveillance, and community involvement. However, he warned that the social and environmental fallout poverty, displacement, and Niger Delta pollution remains severe.
University of Lagos energy law scholar Professor Dayo Ayoade questioned the accuracy of NUPRC’s figures, pointing to unreliable metering systems.
“It may be 2.04m barrels; it may be double. We don’t know,” he said, accusing security forces of complicity. “Illegal refineries are destroyed, but no masterminds face jail despite trillions lost. Until we see prosecutions including of complicit politicians and security officials this cycle will persist.”
Progress and Paradox
NUPRC highlighted that daily crude losses fell to 9,600 bpd in July 2025, the lowest since 2009. For context, average daily losses were 11,300 bpd in 2024 and 102,900 bpd in 2021, the worst in two decades.
The regulator attributed the progress to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, stricter oversight, and technology-driven monitoring.
Yet, experts insist that despite these gains, Nigeria is still grappling with a paradox: while theft levels have dropped, the cumulative toll remains crippling denying the country vital infrastructure, weakening investor trust, and fueling insecurity.
The Road Ahead
For a nation where crude accounts for over 90% of foreign exchange earnings, even “small” daily losses translate into budget shortfalls and lost opportunities.
Analysts agree that oil theft may never be eliminated, but it can be reduced to manageable levels if Nigeria implements transparent reporting, community participation, stricter enforcement, and political will to punish high-level beneficiaries.
As Nigeria pushes toward its 2m bpd target by December 2025, the challenge lies in not only sustaining progress but also dismantling the systemic failures that allowed trillions of naira to slip away unchecked.
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